Investors Alliance - Home of Power Investor® - Founded in 1987
Investors Alliance was formed to enhance the investing skills of independent investors through research, education, and training. Founded in 1987.
Welcome to our new website:
Don't forget to read our Investor Daily Journal and Blog!
Also check out the RRS Investing and Business feeds,
as well as our Membership Specials!
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NOTE: We are having some minor issues with the site displaying improperly in MS Explorer.
We are working on fixing the issue.
Don't forget to read our Investor Daily Journal and Blog!
Also check out the RRS Investing and Business feeds,
as well as our Membership Specials!
Click the buttons to the left.
NOTE: We are having some minor issues with the site displaying improperly in MS Explorer.
We are working on fixing the issue.
Triple Test Revisited with Apple, Baidu and Google
We get spam mail personally and one recently talked about how their newsletter was bullish on Apple at $135. We went back to the Triple Test (TT) info we wrote up on February 28th, 2008 right here. The price the next day was around $125. We said we thought Apple could probably reach $180 by the end of the year. It closed today at $184.73. The return would have been about 47.7% in about two months. The lowest price was around $115.44 on 2-26-2008. We missed the lowest price but we were pretty close. Baidu.com was another TT on March 10, 2008 at $242.93 (see this web site). The stock appreciated 52.5% in less than two months. On the same date we mentioned TT Google at $433.35. At the time we felt that Baidu was a better buy. Google appreciated 35.3% during the same less than two months time period.
Triple Test is a powerful tool especially when used with good companies. We have not posted too many recently because the market has rallied a bit and TT’s are easier to find when prices are depressed. This is usually when you want to buy. You can find good companies during all market conditions but TT often finds the best nuggets during the weakest markets. TT also does a good job with sector rotation and ETFs.
The Canadians “Find” Another 80 Billion Barrels of Oil
Canada has been cleaning up on oil sands mainly in Alberta. The province to the east of Albert is Saskatchewan. Well Saskatchewan or SAS has their own oil sands. They have been sitting on them for almost 40 years but have decided to develop them. It is estimated that SAS has 80 billion barrels of oil versus the Saudis 260 billion. The joke about the Saudis is they always claim 260 billion and keep all the info secret. Some experts think the Saudis may have a lot less which could be a possible disaster for the global economy.
Read more: Triple Test Revisited with Apple, Baidu and Google
New Mutual Fund, CE Fund & ETF Rating System Launched
The new open-end mutual fund, closed-end mutual fund and exchange traded fund (ETF) rating system is in production now. Members can go to the member section to see the top 10 rated open-end mutual funds and top 10 rated ETFs to start. We will be expanding the number or funds rated and will also add closed-end funds shortly. We are working on automating the process. The web based program for members will be added by the middle of the summer. The program is a very powerful tool to help members insure they are in the best funds or the best funds in their fund family. The system will help members avoid market meltdowns like 1999-2000 by insuring they are in the best funds. This system would have had members rotating to value, REIT and bond funds in 1999-2000 to avoid the market meltdown in the broad indexes and particularly in technology.
We are working on additional enhancements to the program that will be following. We will be using the system in conjunction with the Asset Allocation models in the upcoming Investors Alliance journal.
We are working on additional enhancements to the program that will be following. We will be using the system in conjunction with the Asset Allocation models in the upcoming Investors Alliance journal.
Stocks Mentioned on this New Web Site & Triple Test
We launched this new web site at the end of February. In this blog or Daily Journal area, we decided to post some stocks and ETFs that were possible Triple Test stocks or other stocks that looked promising. Please note these were not stock picks, recommendations, or investment advisory. We wanted to give members and non-members some ideas on Triple Test and the power of Investors Alliance investment software programs. We did not run triple Test screens every day or post all of the Triple Test stocks or ETFs. We are considering doing that in the member only area.
We have decided to post the results of these stocks and ETFs over the past few months. Please note that Triple Test stocks usually take an average of 30 to 40 days to play out. A few stocks on the list are relatively new or were posted on the web site within the last week or so. They are the ones with a very slight loss or are flat. There are other criteria that we will not post here but members have access to this information. Not every stock or ETF was a Triple Test but most were. The other stocks were attractive based on other screens and technical indicators used in our stock screening program Power Tech which does technical analysis screening.
Readers may also say that we were lucky because of the recent market rally. The rally did help but Triple Test finds more stocks and ETFs in weak markets. You can still find Triple Test candidates in good markets but not as many. If we ran the screens in the past three months we would have had dozens of good candidates each week. We did not post all of them. Triple Test also can do a great job finding weaker sectors or stocks in good markets that can recover nicely. It is a fantastic tool for sector rotation.
While the returns here are very good, they could have been even better with options or LEAPs. We are generally not fans of options for the average investor. Buying puts and calls is usually a sucker’s game for novice investors. You can pick the right stock, have the right time, do everything right and the options specialists on the floor can essentially take all of your profit. More savvy investors usually sell covered calls or sell puts. We think Triple Test is powerful enough that all of these strategies can work very well. In the future, we may devote a section of the members journal on using Triple Test with options and LEAPs. LEAPs are essentially long-term options.
Read more: Stocks Mentioned on this New Web Site & Triple Test
Two Possible Triple Tests
George Soros Says The Dollar May Be Finished….Not Just Yet George
Soros is a rather unpleasant billionaire who was heavily shorting the U.S. market just after 9/11. We think the dollar’s demise may not happen. Mr. Soros fails to mention that a lot of Europeans are fed up with the Euro. The Germans hate inflation and they have a lot less control over it with the Euro. The Euro in Germany is referred to as the TuererEuro, which is a take off of “teurer” which is expensive in German. Spain and Italy may want to inflate the currency and are also fed up with the Euro. We have read a few editorials by people like David Pryce-Jones and others who think the Euro may not last until 2010. The cheap dollar may devastate European manufacturers who are already feeling pain from China. If we decide to develop the 180 billion barrels of oil in North Dakota (the Saudis have 260 billion barrels), the potential 1 to 2 trillion barrels in oil shale in the Rockies and another 1 to 2 trillion barrels in coal diesel then the dollar will be just fine. Sadly, some people would rather enrich the Saudis, Bahrain, Dubai, Iran, Hugo Chavez and Russia with Americans money.
Garmin Ltd. OTC:GRMN $46.56
Garmin had become almost a bubble stock on the huge sales of their car and portable GPS sales. Garmin is facing a lot of competition including Tom Tom and Magellan to name a few. The stock is down to 1/3rd of it’s value from the peak in December 2007. The Bollinger Band (BBS) spread is an impressive 39.2%. Triple Test usually looks for a rally back to the middle band of about $54.50 and very aggressive investors might go for the top band of $63.44. A move back to the middle band would be about an 18% return. 52-week sales were $3.18 billion with $855 million in net income. Recent quarterly sales grew 99.1% while earnings grew 70.4% during the same period. Return on equity (ROE) was a solid 43.8%. The stock is trading at a P/E of 12. This is not a widows and orphans stock.
Soros is a rather unpleasant billionaire who was heavily shorting the U.S. market just after 9/11. We think the dollar’s demise may not happen. Mr. Soros fails to mention that a lot of Europeans are fed up with the Euro. The Germans hate inflation and they have a lot less control over it with the Euro. The Euro in Germany is referred to as the TuererEuro, which is a take off of “teurer” which is expensive in German. Spain and Italy may want to inflate the currency and are also fed up with the Euro. We have read a few editorials by people like David Pryce-Jones and others who think the Euro may not last until 2010. The cheap dollar may devastate European manufacturers who are already feeling pain from China. If we decide to develop the 180 billion barrels of oil in North Dakota (the Saudis have 260 billion barrels), the potential 1 to 2 trillion barrels in oil shale in the Rockies and another 1 to 2 trillion barrels in coal diesel then the dollar will be just fine. Sadly, some people would rather enrich the Saudis, Bahrain, Dubai, Iran, Hugo Chavez and Russia with Americans money.
Garmin Ltd. OTC:GRMN $46.56
Garmin had become almost a bubble stock on the huge sales of their car and portable GPS sales. Garmin is facing a lot of competition including Tom Tom and Magellan to name a few. The stock is down to 1/3rd of it’s value from the peak in December 2007. The Bollinger Band (BBS) spread is an impressive 39.2%. Triple Test usually looks for a rally back to the middle band of about $54.50 and very aggressive investors might go for the top band of $63.44. A move back to the middle band would be about an 18% return. 52-week sales were $3.18 billion with $855 million in net income. Recent quarterly sales grew 99.1% while earnings grew 70.4% during the same period. Return on equity (ROE) was a solid 43.8%. The stock is trading at a P/E of 12. This is not a widows and orphans stock.
Triple Test Has Worked Well with YHOO – We Hope MSFT’s Deal Falls Thru
It looks like Microsoft is giving Yahoo an ultimatum to take the deal to buy Yahoo or MSFT is going to lower their price. In a way we hope that Yahoo does not sell out. The stock has worked very well with Triple Test.
First, we need to provide a little background for people reading this who may not be Investors Alliance members. Triple Test is a technical analysis and screen method that looks for stocks that may be inexpensive technically in the short and intermediate-term. The method works well for swing trading and looks for stocks that potentially can move 10 to 30% within a 40 day holding period. Power Investor software allows you to manually screen for these types of stocks while Power Tech automates the technical screening process.
Yahoo was sort of an idea candidate for Triple Test. They have a solid business but growth has slowed. The company has good cash flow and will remain in business but future growth potential is limited. This means a long-term holding in Yahoo will probably not do too much. Google may be heading down this path as well. Yahoo’s stock is then going to be fairly cyclical with back and filling. We had two Triple Tests in 2006, one in 2007 and one in 2008 so far. The average return for all the trades is 25% with a holding period of less than a month. The most recent was at the start of 2008 and within two weeks, the stock rocketed over 32% on the buyout offer for Microsoft. Triple Test is just one of the research tools we offer to members. Triple Test recently had a home run using Apple’s stock chart.
First, we need to provide a little background for people reading this who may not be Investors Alliance members. Triple Test is a technical analysis and screen method that looks for stocks that may be inexpensive technically in the short and intermediate-term. The method works well for swing trading and looks for stocks that potentially can move 10 to 30% within a 40 day holding period. Power Investor software allows you to manually screen for these types of stocks while Power Tech automates the technical screening process.
Yahoo was sort of an idea candidate for Triple Test. They have a solid business but growth has slowed. The company has good cash flow and will remain in business but future growth potential is limited. This means a long-term holding in Yahoo will probably not do too much. Google may be heading down this path as well. Yahoo’s stock is then going to be fairly cyclical with back and filling. We had two Triple Tests in 2006, one in 2007 and one in 2008 so far. The average return for all the trades is 25% with a holding period of less than a month. The most recent was at the start of 2008 and within two weeks, the stock rocketed over 32% on the buyout offer for Microsoft. Triple Test is just one of the research tools we offer to members. Triple Test recently had a home run using Apple’s stock chart.
Triple Test, Oil and EOG Resources
The Power of Triple Test
Triple Test is a technical analysis method that can help investors find shorter-term price moves in equities that may be undervalued in the short term. Members can manually search for Triple Test stocks using Power Investor while Power Tech automates the process. One example indicates how powerful the method may be for shorter-term investors using methods like swing trading. Options or LEAP can also be employed as well including buying calls or selling puts. The goal is generally for a holding period of less than 40 days and a gain in the area of 10 to 30% during that time period.
The system can work on stocks and can also be very helpful in predicting market turns, sector rotation and market cycles. Exchange traded Funds or ETFs can also be used. We think Triple Test may be one of the best tools to use for ETFs.
One example of Triple Test power is Boston Scientific or BSX. The stock has been an overall loser for the past 3 to 4 year but Triple Test would have allowed investors to make impressive gains. There were three obvious Triple Test moves in BSX in 2006, 2007 and 2008 or one per year. The hold period was over a month for the three trades and the average gain was about 21%. We have seen some stocks in more volatile industries like technology, biotech, energy and a few others where stocks had two Triple Test set ups per year. Triple Test is not alchemy but it is a powerful tool that can help many investors.
Triple Test is a technical analysis method that can help investors find shorter-term price moves in equities that may be undervalued in the short term. Members can manually search for Triple Test stocks using Power Investor while Power Tech automates the process. One example indicates how powerful the method may be for shorter-term investors using methods like swing trading. Options or LEAP can also be employed as well including buying calls or selling puts. The goal is generally for a holding period of less than 40 days and a gain in the area of 10 to 30% during that time period.
The system can work on stocks and can also be very helpful in predicting market turns, sector rotation and market cycles. Exchange traded Funds or ETFs can also be used. We think Triple Test may be one of the best tools to use for ETFs.
One example of Triple Test power is Boston Scientific or BSX. The stock has been an overall loser for the past 3 to 4 year but Triple Test would have allowed investors to make impressive gains. There were three obvious Triple Test moves in BSX in 2006, 2007 and 2008 or one per year. The hold period was over a month for the three trades and the average gain was about 21%. We have seen some stocks in more volatile industries like technology, biotech, energy and a few others where stocks had two Triple Test set ups per year. Triple Test is not alchemy but it is a powerful tool that can help many investors.
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